58% of Southerners and 33% of non-Southerners will have a “2020 election denier” on the ballot for the U.S. House of Representatives this fall.
Percent of U.S. House of Representatives races with a “2020 election denier” on the ballot
2022
Source: FiveThirtyEight, Brookings. Notes: “2020 election denier” is defined as someone who has fully denied the results of the 2020 election, having clearly stated (in media interviews, public debates, campaign materials, social media and/or through direct outreach from FiveThirtyEight) that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump or taken legal action to overturn the results. Brookings assessed candidates for state, congressional, and state legislative races across the country and found 345 candidates that are 2020 election deniers.
Despite there being no evidence of widespread fraud in the 2020 election and expert consensus that it was secure, more than 300 candidates across the country running for election this November have denied the results of the 2020 election, all Republicans.1,2,3 In the South, 58% of candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives have made these claims.4 In addition, nearly 50 gubernatorial, secretary of state, and attorney general candidates across the country have expressed denialist sentiments, while running for offices that play a critical role in determining how state elections are run in their state.
These claims by candidates at the national, state, and local levels are a continuation of the surge of misinformation and disinformation since 2020 — especially on the topics of election integrity and the Covid pandemic. This misinformation can have a significant impact on public confidence in the political system. A 2022 survey found that 64% of Americans believe that U.S. democracy is in crisis and is at risk of failing.5
“No evidence for systematic voter fraud: A guide to statistical claims about the 2020 elections”. Eggers, Garro, and Grimmer. PNAS. November, 2021. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2103619118
“JOINT STATEMENT FROM ELECTIONS INFRASTRUCTURE GOVERNMENT COORDINATING COUNCIL & THE ELECTION INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR COORDINATING EXECUTIVE COMMITTEES”. CISA. November, 2020. https://www.cisa.gov/news/2020/11/12/joint-statement-elections-infrastructure-government-coordinating-council-election
“Democracy on the ballot–How many election deniers are on the ballot in November and what is their likelihood of success?” Kamarck, Eisen. Brookings. October, 2022. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2022/10/07/democracy-on-the-ballot-how-many-election-deniers-are-on-the-ballot-in-november-and-what-is-their-likelihood-of-success/?utm_campaign=Brookings%20Brief&utm_medium=email&utm_content=228994851&utm_source=hs_email
“60 Percent Of Americans Will Have An Election Denier On The Ballot This Fall”. FiveThirtyEight. October, 2022. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republicans-trump-election-fraud/
“Seven in ten Americans say the country is in crisis, at risk of failing”. Ipsos. January, 2022. https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/seven-ten-americans-say-country-crisis-risk-failing