2022 Election Competitiveness
In the 2022 midterms, just 7 of 112 Southern races for the U.S. House of Representatives were competitive.
Competitive elections in the 2022 midterms
Percent of U.S. House races with a margin of victory of less than 8 percentage points
Source: Brennan Center and Cook Political Report. Notes: Maps drawn by partisan politicians include those drawn by the state legislatures, governors, or political redistricting commissions.
Electoral competition is a cornerstone of a vibrant democracy, and higher levels of electoral competition have been shown to increase voter turnout as well as future political engagement.1,2,3 This is likely because, in close elections, citizens feel their vote matters more and that they have a greater impact on the election’s outcome. Additionally, competitive elections tend to generate more outreach to voters and political information, resulting in a more politically informed and energized electorate.4 In the 2022 election, only 13% of the seats for the U.S. House of Representatives were competitive (won by a margin of less than 8%), continuing a decline in competitive districts.5 Half of all states had no competitive House races and, in the South, only 6% (7 of 112 seats) were competitive.
The 2022 midterm election was the first to be held using new electoral maps redrawn after the 2020 Census. This decade’s redistricting cycle saw a number of significant changes to producing and reviewing maps, including the 2013 elimination of key Voting Rights Act provisions and a 2019 Supreme Court decision barring federal courts from hearing claims of unconstitutional partisan gerrymandering.6,7 The decision in the pending Moore v. Harper case argued before the Supreme Court in December could go one step further by barring state courts from intervening to overturn gerrymandered maps.8 In the South, state courts drew 5 of the 7 House races that were competitive in 2022.
“Turnout in 2022 House midterms declined from 2018 high, final official returns show”. Desilver. Pew Research Center. March, 2023. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2023/03/10/turnout-in-2022-house-midterms-declined-from-2018-high-final-official-returns-show/#:~:text=Turnout%20in%202022%20House%20midterms,high%2C%20final%20official%20returns%20show&text=After%20soaring%20in%202018%20compared,at%20least%20the%20lower%20atmosphere.
“The Effects of Competitiveness and Ballot Measures on Youth Turnout”. Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement. November, 2014. https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/effects-competitiveness-and-ballot-measures-youth-turnout
“Competitive Elections and Democracy in America: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly”. Evans. Routledge. 2014. https://cces.gov.harvard.edu/publications/competitive-elections-and-democracy-america-good-bad-and-ugly
“Competitive Elections and the American Voter”. Lipsitz. University of Pennsylvania Press. 2011. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt3fhnxn
“Gerrymandering Competitive Districts to Near Extinction”. Li, Leaverton. Brennan Center for Justice. August, 2022. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/gerrymandering-competitive-districts-near-extinction
“Supreme Court halts use of key part of voting law”. Sherman. AP News. June, 2013. https://apnews.com/article/courts-voting-race-and-ethnicity-racial-injustice-laws-871be7654df041549cf74eb1a1d377ca
“Supreme Court Rules Partisan Gerrymandering Is Beyond The Reach Of Federal Courts”. Totenberg, Montanaro, and Parks. NPR All Things Considered. June, 2019. https://www.npr.org/2019/06/27/731847977/supreme-court-rules-partisan-gerrymandering-is-beyond-the-reach-of-federal-court
“Moore v. Harper”. Oyez. https://www.oyez.org/cases/2022/21-1271
