Many states with high census undercounts will not receive their fair share of Medicaid funding. But states can still inform federal funding distribution by actively engaging in new census review programs.
Estimated miscounts in total population by state, 2020 Census
States losing out on rightful share of Medicaid funding over the next decade
While there were concerns around the collection and accuracy of the 2020 Census data, recent reports and an innovative quality check by the Urban Institute show that the overall data was better than many had anticipated. Within the preliminary data, however, there was variation in the communities that were undercounted and overcounted. A longstanding problem in census data has been the undercounting of people of color, and Urban’s study found that to be the case in 2020: Black and Hispanic/Latino persons, young children, renters, and households with a noncitizen had the highest estimated net undercounts in the 2020 Census, ranging from -2.13% to -4.86%. Undercounts (and overcounts) affect state and federal political representation and funding for necessities such as infrastructure, children’s programs, and health care. Texas, for example, has one of the highest estimated undercounts, causing Texans to potentially lose out on over $247 million of Medicaid funding annually.1
States and localities have an opportunity to improve this data, which will inform federal funding distribution for the next 10 years, by actively engaging in the Count Question Resolution program, the new Post Census Group Quarters Review, and the Population Estimates Challenge Program. These programs allow tribal, state, and local governments to identify and submit evidence of omissions or mistakes in the 2020 Census, and correct the count for federal funds.2,3
“Exploring the 2020 Census’s Accuracy and Utility”. Elliott, Martin, Shakespeare, and Kelly. The Urban Institute. November, 2021. https://www.urban.org/policy-centers/center-labor-human-services-and-population/projects/exploring-2020-censuss-accuracy-and-utility
“Open: Comments on proposed 2020 Post-Census Group Quarters Review”. Tippett. UNC at Chapel Hill. January, 2022. https://www.ncdemography.org/2022/01/14/open-comments-on-proposed-2020-post-census-group-quarters-review/
“2020 Census Count Question Resolution & Population Estimates Challenge Programs: Opportunities for Improving Postcensal Population Estimates”. Lee, Naughton, and Brumfield. Georgetown Center on Poverty and Inequality. May, 2021. https://www.georgetownpoverty.org/issues/2020-census-count-question-resolution-population-estimates-challenge-programs/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2020-census-count-question-resolution-population-estimates-challenge-programs