The Census Bureau’s annual population estimates can make up for some problems in the 2020 Census but budget and staff are down.
U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program
Full-time equivalent staff and annual budget (2022 dollars, in millions)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Intercensal Estimates budgets, as compiled by Ron Prevost, Ph.D., Research Professor, Massive Data Institute, Georgetown University. Notes: Years represent fiscal years. FTE= Full-time equivalent.
Each year, the Census Bureau produces a series of population estimates through the Population Estimates Program, an update of the once-every-ten-year population counts for states, cities and counties. These estimates are used in data products like the American Community Survey and help determine the distribution of $1.5 trillion in population-based federal aid.1
Improving the Population Estimates Program could mitigate issues in the 2020 Census, which undercounted people of color, the very young, and the population of 6 states, according to the Census Bureau’s own measures of accuracy. (Populations of 8 states, white people, and older Americans were overcounted.) These measures found the 2020 Census missed close to 5% of people of Hispanic origin (triple the rate in 2010), children up to age 4 (the most in 50 years), and residents of Tennessee and Arkansas.2 These miscounts leave some communities receiving less than their fair share of population-based funding.
Census Bureau Director Robert Santos has appointed a team to investigate improving the estimates.3 Professor Ron Prevost of the Massive Data Institute at Georgetown, a member of the Census Scientific Advisory Committee, researched one potential obstacle: The estimates budget, down 20% since 2003, and staffing levels, down 33%.
“Counting for Dollars 2020: The Role of the Decennial Census in the Geographic Distribution of Federal Funds”. The George Washington Institute of Public Policy. April, 2020. https://gwipp.gwu.edu/counting-dollars-2020-role-decennial-census-geographic-distribution-federal-funds
“Census Bureau Releases Estimates of Undercount and Overcount in the 2020 Census. U.S. Census Bureau. March, 2022. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/2020-census-estimates-of-undercount-and-overcount.html
“Briefing on the Base Evaluation and Research Team”. Hartley, Perry. U.S. Census Bureau. https://www2.census.gov/about/partners/cac/sac/meetings/2022-09/presentation-briefing-on-base-evaluation-and-research-team.pdf
